Markets in 2025 were shaped by structural shifts rather than single shocks. Inflation unwound unevenly, interest rates stayed higher than the pre-pandemic norm, and geopolitical tensions added a steady layer of uncertainty across regions. These pressures reshaped investor behaviour, influenced capital flows, and pushed both traditional finance and digital assets into a new stage of maturity. Building on our earlier conversation with ICONOMI about regulation and market evolution, we talked with Peter Curk to explore how macro forces, investor strategy, and crypto adoption have developed through 2025, and what these trends mean as we head into 2026.
What were the dominant macroeconomic forces that shaped global markets in 2025, and how did different regions respond to these pressures?
Three forces dominated:
1.The long tail of the inflation shock
Central banks spent most of 2025 managing the aftershocks of 2021–2023 inflation, not the peak itself. The story shifted from “fight inflation at all costs” to “how do we normalise without breaking growth.”
2.Higher-for-longer interest rates
Policy rates didn’t snap back to zero. The US, UK and parts of Europe kept rates elevated relative to the pre-COVID decade, which structurally changed how investors think about risk-free yield versus equities, credit, and alternative assets.
3.Persistent geopolitical fragmentation
The world didn’t get calmer. Ongoing conflicts, trade tensions, and elections across major economies kept a constant layer of uncertainty in the background. Markets had to price not one big shock, but a series of rolling, localised risks.
Regional responses diverged:
- US: Stayed the macro “reference point.” Growth held up better than many expected, which allowed the Fed to talk about cuts very cautiously rather than aggressively.
- Eurozone & UK: More fragile growth, more political and regulatory noise. That made Europe more sensitive to energy prices, fiscal policy, and bank lending conditions.
- Emerging markets: The strong dollar and tighter global liquidity remained a constraint. Some EMs that moved early on rate hikes were able to ease more confidently; others stayed under pressure.
How did inflation dynamics, interest rate policy, and geopolitical tensions collectively influence economic stability and investor sentiment throughout the year?
They created a strange mix of “macro fatigue” and “cautious optimism.”
Headline inflation moved closer to targets in many economies, but services and wage-driven components remained sticky. That slowed the pace and size of expected rate cuts and kept real yields elevated.
With cash and high-quality bonds suddenly yielding something meaningful again, investors rethought the basic 60/40 portfolio. A lot of capital moved into money-market funds, high-grade credit, and short-duration instruments in a search for yield with less regret risk.
Instead of a single “black swan,” investors faced a series of grey rhinos: regional conflicts, elections, trade restrictions, and regulatory shifts. No single event broke the system, but together they kept a floor under volatility and a ceiling on exuberance.
Investors became more tactical, more diversified, and more willing to hold dry powder.
For us at ICONOMI, this environment actually reinforced the value of guided, diversified structures versus binary “all-in / all-out” trading behaviour.
What major developments defined the crypto market in 2025, and how did institutional adoption and regulatory progress shape its evolution?
2025 was the year crypto became less about headlines and more about infrastructure. Institutional adoption moved from testing to integration, and more wealth managers, banks, and fintechs integrated crypto access, often via white-label platforms or regulated partners instead of building everything in-house. Allocations are still small in percentage terms, but the direction of travel is clear: digital assets are gradually entering formal asset allocation frameworks.
Regulation matured instead of “arriving”. In the UK, the FCA hardened expectations around financial promotions, crypto risk communication, and influencer oversight, forcing the industry to professionalise its marketing and consumer protection standards.
Across Europe, MiCA and national regimes pushed the market towards licensed, supervised providers and away from offshore “anonymous” models.
How did Bitcoin and the broader digital asset ecosystem perform, and what distinguished the projects or assets that proved most resilient?
Bitcoin did what Bitcoin does in late-cycle environments: it became the macro signal and the liquidity barometer for the entire ecosystem.
From our vantage point, strategy-based exposure proved more resilient than coin-picking. The portfolios that combined Bitcoin, high-conviction large caps, and a selective slice of structural growth themes fared best on a risk-adjusted basis.
What investment behaviours, risk-management principles, or strategic approaches were most effective in navigating both macro and crypto uncertainty this year?
Investors who used diversified strategies across both assets and managers tended to avoid catastrophic drawdowns and had the confidence to stay invested. Position sizing, max drawdown thresholds, and rebalancing rules mattered more than any single macro call.
Investors who explicitly decided, “This is a 3–5 year allocation,” behaved very differently from those treating crypto like a weekly trade. The former used volatility to add; the latter tended to sell lows and buy highs.
In short: process beat prediction.
What overarching lessons can investors draw from 2025 about building durable, adaptable, long-term strategies across asset classes?
Three big lessons:
1.Regime changes are not one-year events
The shift from zero rates, abundant liquidity and benign geopolitics to a more fragmented, higher-rate world is structural. Strategies must be designed for multiple regimes, not just the last bull market.
2.True diversification includes digital assets
Crypto has matured enough to earn a place in strategic asset allocation, but not in a way that overwhelms overall risk. A small but deliberate allocation, implemented through structured strategies, can meaningfully change long-term outcomes without dominating the portfolio.
3.Simplicity scales
Investors who could explain their strategy in one or two sentences typically fared better than those running fragile, overly complex frameworks.
As we look ahead to 2026, what are the key themes or shifts likely to influence both traditional financial markets and the crypto sector?
I see three themes:
1.Convergence of TradFi and crypto infrastructure
Tokenisation, on-chain settlement, and regulated digital asset platforms will increasingly sit underneath “normal” financial products. Users may not even see the crypto rails; they’ll just experience faster, more flexible products.
2.RegTech and compliance as competitive advantages
Firms that can navigate complex regulatory environments, in Europe in particular, will unlock distribution that purely offshore or lightly regulated players cannot.
3.From “beta” to “alpha” in crypto
The first decade was about access and beta: “Can I buy Bitcoin or ETH?” The next phase is about differentiated strategies, structured products, and advisor-led solutions that seek alpha and yield within a regulated framework.
ICONOMI sits exactly where these themes intersect: regulated, strategy-based, and designed for both retail investors and professional allocators.
Where do you see the strongest opportunities and the most significant risks, emerging in a world that appears more stable but still economically complex?
On the opportunities side, I see that wealth managers, private banks, and advisers want to offer crypto and tokenised products in a way that is operationally simple and regulator-friendly. Platforms that solve this are well-positioned. Another thing is that as regulatory frameworks evolve, there’s a clear opening for products that combine equities, fixed income, and digital assets in a single, regulated structure.
On the other hand, there will always be players trying to sidestep regulation. The risk for investors is being lured by short-term yield or leverage that doesn’t survive the next stress event. Another risk is the fragmented infrastructure and operational risk, as more assets move on-chain and more intermediaries appear. Consequently, operational security, custody, and counterparty risk become key concerns. Not all platforms are built equal.
For ICONOMI, the path is clear: stay on the regulated side of that line, focus on simplicity and robustness, and help both retail and professional investors build portfolios that can withstand multiple cycles, not just the next quarter.
